Too early to call the bottom of the market? You’re listening to the wrong voices.
But as sure as the sun will rise tomorrow, the days of greedy easy money are over.
Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy only when others are fearful. Those are the words of legendary investor Warren Buffet, aka The Sage of Omaha. Of course, Buffett is feeling the pinch himself having nearly half of his $62 billion fortune wiped out in the last twelve months. But his truism still holds water.
Few people have the stomach – or indeed resources – for investment at the moment. In fact, it was a London-based hedge fund manager (whose name I’ll keep a secret) who told me recently that there was nothing at the moment worth investing in. He himself has taken a sabbatical from high finance and is shopping for a new chateau in the Burgundy region of France.
But then what does he know? Arguably, he’s part of the crowd that got us into this mess in the first place. And to be honest, he’s quite entitled to sit back now and enjoy what’s left of his own personal £400 million stash.
But as sure as the sun will rise tomorrow, the days of greedy easy money and are over. For those without a ten-figure cushion, who are willing to put in the hours, believe us - there are still investment opportunities out there.
Now that the G20 summit has fine-tuned the details on a $1 trillion rescue deal, we are straight out of the blocks with our pick of the places where the green shoots are already showing. This issue is dedicated to the best places in our locale for improving your prospects…
M Ansner
Editor
Short sharp and very expensive shot
By Matt Byshee
It looked like a disaster at first with France and Germany ready to walk, but the G20 world leaders finally pulled together to tackle the global economic crisis. The $1.1 trillion deal was a coup for the UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown and might yet pull us all out of the mire. Here’s a sideways glance at how it will affect us all…
FINANCIAL REGULATION
A new Financial Stability Board with a strengthened mandate will replace the Financial Stability Forum. Changing a single word is a shaky start if you ask me. Regulation and oversight will be extended to all financial institutions, instruments and markets, and hedge funds will be regulated for the first time. Blind eyes will undoubtedly be turned, unless you wave your bonus around in the pub. Best order a camouflage paint job on that new yacht you had planned for this year…Credit rating agencies will be regulated in order to remove their conflicts of interest
And international accounting standards will be set. There will be a unilateral approach for cleaning up banks' toxic assets – effectively sweeping them under the world’s carpet.
TAX HAVENS
There will be sanctions against secretive tax havens that do not transfer information on request. Whether it will actually make any difference is classified information. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development has published a list of countries assessed by the Global Forum against the international standard for exchange of tax information. But that’s unlikely to stop anyone taking an interest in paradise islands in the Caribbean.
IMF
Resources available to the International Monetary Fund will be trebled to $750bn. This includes a new overdraft facility, or special drawing rights allocation, of $250bn. I wonder if they’re charged the same exorbitant fees I’m charged for cash advances on my credit card?
Additional resources of $6bn from agreed IMF gold sales will be made available for lending to the poorest countries, which guilds the lily. The G20 also supports increased lending to the world's poorest countries of at least $100bn by the multilateral development banks, which is far more lucrative than writing off their existing unserviceable debt.
GLOBAL TRADE
There will be a commitment of $250bn of support for trade finance made over the next two years proving that throwing good money after bad makes sound financial sense. While national regulators will be asked to make use of available flexibility in capital requirements for trade finance – not sure what this means, but then who was cares Sarkozy will sign for anything once it gets to 5.30 in the morning!
PROTECTIONISM
The G20 has pledged to resist protectionism – unless a show of mass public protest changes their minds. There will be a commitment to naming and shaming countries that breach free trade rules – but not unless it’s in everyone’s interest. The G20 will notify the World Trade Organization (WTO) of any measures that constrain worldwide capital flows. But the WTO will only monitor and report publicly on these undertakings on a quarterly basis – which will fire up the ‘don’t cry over spilled milk’ clause.
FISCAL STIMULUS
Although there is no new fiscal stimulus, Gordon Brown said G20 countries are already implementing "the biggest macroeconomic stimulus the world has ever seen" - an injection of $5tn by the end of next year. Does anyone actually know where this $5tn is coming from, or what it looks like, or even if that much money actually exists at all?
Well, it makes you wonder…
|